Sat, Feb 25, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 019 | 011 | 212 | 02 | 2 | 344 |
| CAR | 19 | 110 | 08 | 01 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:01CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jerome Samson · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 17:32CARJussi JokinenAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 13:58FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Kris Versteeg, Keaton Ellerby · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 18:13FLAWojtek WolskiAssists: Shawn Matthias, Jason Garrison · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 2. FLA Mikael Samuelsson scored
- 3. CAR Jeff Skinner scored
- 4. FLA Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 5. CAR Jiri Tlusty stopped
- 6. FLA Stephen Weiss scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:44CARTim Gleason: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:49FLAKrys Barch: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:12FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:09CARBryan Allen: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:51FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:51CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopecky won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Kopecky – Bergenheim5:48
xG 0.89–0.30 (75%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Barch – Smithson – Skille2:38
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg5:31
xG 0.11–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Fleischmann – Versteeg5:01
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison20:47
xG 1.67–0.46 (78%)attempts 39–11goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson12:57
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Weaver – Ellerby12:59
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bowman – Skinner11:56
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Brent – Nodl – Sutter8:49
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Samson12:55
xG 0.41–1.49 (22%)attempts 7–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – McBain12:47
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason15:49
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
- Harrison – Faulk15:43
xG 0.76–1.50 (34%)attempts 10–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).