Sun, Feb 26, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 26 | 24 | 416 |
| NJD | 18 | 06 | 28 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07NJDAlexei PonikarovskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:39TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mathieu Garon · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:55TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 2:28NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Steve Bernier, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 3:09TBLMatt GilroyAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 10:18TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Eric Brewer · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 17:25NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:04NJDMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min
- P2 8:17NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:46NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:47TBLTrevor Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:00TBLMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos8:20
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Hall – Angelidis – Wallace4:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Thompson3:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Purcell – Stamkos2:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOberg – Gilroy5:38
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Clark – Brewer5:09
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Gilroy2:27
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Ponikarovsky – Bernier8:20
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique9:18
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Kovalchuk – Parise3:40
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Clarkson – Henrique2:28
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:09
xG 0.28–0.09 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Greene2:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Salvador – Larsson12:27
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).