Sun, Feb 26, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 09 | 18 | 230 |
| OTT | 08 | 210 | 36 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:21OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:22OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Kuba · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:13OTTJim O'BrienGWGAssists: Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 9:04NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Travis Hamonic, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 12:59OTTChris NeilAssists: Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 17:49OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Nick Foligno, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:51NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:42NYIDavid Ullstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares17:43
xG 1.86–0.52 (78%)attempts 23–16goals 2–0
- Ullstrom – Martin – Cizikas7:22
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Niederreiter7:03
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:30
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic21:12
xG 1.08–0.32 (77%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Mottau – Eaton10:08
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Streit – Jurcina16:42
xG 0.76–0.61 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – O'Brien8:08
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Greening – Turris – Butler2:46
xG 0.05–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith12:10
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek5:41
xG 0.06–0.33 (14%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Phillips16:43
xG 0.48–1.05 (31%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Kuba – Karlsson19:02
xG 0.45–1.08 (29%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Lee – Cowen12:53
xG 0.15–0.82 (16%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).