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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 26, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Montréal Canadiens 2, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.

FLA winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL2100406220
FLA11021319432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:27MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:55MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P1 11:36FLAStephen WeissAssists: Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P2 1:09FLASean BergenheimPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Scott Clemmensen · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P2 4:01FLAStephen WeissGWGAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Sean Bergenheim · Tip-in, 0.30 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:52FLABrian CampbellAssists: Stephen Weiss, Sean Bergenheim · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 3:53FLASean Bergenheim: Holding2 min
  2. P1 3:57MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 6:23FLATomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 6:23FLAKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 0:00MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min · PPG
  6. P1 0:00FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 0:00MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 16:30FLAKrys Barch: Boarding2 min
  9. P2 18:55FLAMike Santorelli: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P2 19:10FLAJason Garrison: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 19:10MTLErik Cole: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 3:58MTLYannick Weber: Holding2 min
  13. P3 10:53MTLRaphael Diaz: Holding2 min
  14. P3 15:53MTLLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
  15. P3 19:14FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 19:14MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
45% to win55% to win
← MTL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Desharnais
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLFLA
20Shots on goal32
1.8Expected goals4.4
37Shot attempts57
27Faceoffs won38
5Power plays5
19Penalty minutes19
38Hits30
9Blocked shots5
2Giveaways5
3Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. Gomez – Nokelainen – Palushaj4:35

    xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Bourque – Eller – Leblanc4:58

    xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

  3. Nokelainen – Palushaj – Leblanc2:36

    xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  4. Plekanec – Kostitsyn – Eller6:31

    xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Kaberle – Weber12:06

    xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

  2. Emelin – Diaz11:10

    xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1

  3. Gorges – Subban14:56

    xG 0.14–1.46 (9%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestSamuelsson – Weiss – Bergenheim10:29

    xG 1.31–0.07 (95%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0

  2. Kopecky – Fleischmann – Versteeg7:35

    xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  3. Wolski – Santorelli – Matthias9:05

    xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  4. Barch – Smithson – Skille4:02

    xG 0.11–0.17 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeaver – Ellerby12:32

    xG 1.30–0.19 (87%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0

  2. Campbell – Garrison14:32

    xG 0.57–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0

  3. Jovanovski – Campbell2:00

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 4.4 xGMTL 1.8 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #411 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.32 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.

FLA winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).