Tue, Feb 28, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 06 | 49 | 525 |
| CBJ | 15 | 012 | 113 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08DETJohan FranzenAssists: Jakub Kindl, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 6:55CBJRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, James Wisniewski · Tip-in, 0.39 xG1–1
- P3 2:13CBJDerek MacKenzieSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 3:43DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:26DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 9:15DETJan MursakAssists: Cory Emmerton, Tomas Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 13:52DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:02CBJDerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:21DETTodd Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:19CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:48DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P1 13:44CBJBrett Lebda: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:49DETJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:21DETIan White: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:33DETJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09CBJCam Atkinson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:56CBJBrett Lebda: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:04CBJJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak7:26
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler8:55
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Franzen – Helm7:11
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Abdelkader5:52
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith9:10
xG 0.89–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall13:04
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Janik – White13:43
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson8:11
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard10:30
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Dorsett – Gillies9:47
xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boyce – Russell – Johansen6:22
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin14:51
xG 0.64–0.47 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Lebda – Moore12:45
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Johnson13:45
xG 0.26–0.80 (25%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).