Tue, Feb 28, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 09 | 06 | 124 |
| TBL | 19 | 17 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:02MTLDavid DesharnaisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:28TBLAdam HallGWGAssists: Ryan Malone, JT Wyman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:37TBLMike Commodore: Interference2 min
- P2 5:56MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:16TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:16TBLRyan Malone: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:16MTLBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
- P2 8:16TBLRyan Malone: Aggressor10 min
- P2 8:16MTLBrad Staubitz: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:29TBLBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:27MTLTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:47TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:47MTLBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:37MTLYannick Weber: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – White – Geoffrion10:29
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty14:43
xG 0.46–0.60 (44%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Bourque – Palushaj – Eller10:23
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Weber3:56
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Weber2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban14:41
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Wyman – Pyatt5:30
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Segal – Angelidis – Labrie2:25
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Connolly4:03
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Malone – Wyman6:22
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Oberg10:11
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Clark – Brewer14:37
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Commodore – Lee9:42
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).