Thu, Mar 1, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 311 | 06 | 114 | 431 |
| PHX | 07 | 215 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:00CGYCurtis GlencrossSHAssists: Mark Giordano, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 17:23CGYOlli JokinenGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 1:27PHXRaffi TorresPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 3:48PHXMichal RozsivalAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:13CGYJarome IginlaENAssists: Matt Stajan, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:50CGYTim Jackman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:20CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:41CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:29CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:21CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:21PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:11PHXMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 15:10CGYCurtis Glencross: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:31CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:49PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Cammalleri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Bouma – Horak4:33
xG 0.60–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross6:43
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri11:52
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Kostopoulos – Stajan – Comeau8:34
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano13:16
xG 1.58–0.22 (88%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie11:39
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hannan – Bouwmeester3:35
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:27
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres2:21
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Langkow – Torres – Bissonnette5:17
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker7:26
xG 0.05–0.50 (9%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Stone3:24
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson3:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson12:06
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).