Fri, Mar 2, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 5, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 37 | 27 | 06 | 520 |
| WSH | 07 | 011 | 05 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:29NJDZach ParisePPGWGAssists: David Clarkson, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:50NJDZach PariseAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.40 xG2–0
- P1 18:19NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: David Clarkson · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 3:08NJDZach PariseAssists: Adam Henrique, Bryce Salvador · Snap, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 15:02NJDPatrik EliasSHAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:05WSHMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:37NJDAndy Greene: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:45NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min
- P3 13:31WSHJeff Schultz: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique7:47
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Josefson9:53
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Henrique4:31
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Clarkson – Carter2:28
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Larsson14:21
xG 1.11–0.45 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky15:12
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Fayne – Greene13:54
xG 0.01–0.29 (2%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Perreault8:21
xG 0.43–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Aucoin – Johansson3:28
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Beagle8:39
xG 0.32–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault7:08
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green16:13
xG 0.75–0.18 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – Orlov17:29
xG 0.56–0.37 (61%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson14:40
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).