Fri, Mar 2, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 0, Detroit Red Wings 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 05 | 09 | 019 |
| DET | 213 | 312 | 110 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35DETValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 16:04DETBrendan SmithAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 7:05DETDarren HelmAssists: Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 16:35DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 17:42DETIan WhiteUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 5:30DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ian White · Slap, 0.05 xG0–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:08MINCal Clutterbuck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:56MINNick Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:45DETJiri Hudler: Holding2 min
- P3 0:36MINMatt Cullen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:48MINDarroll Powe: Holding2 min
- P3 8:39MINDany Heatley: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:38DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 17:42MINMatt Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:42DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:42DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:42MINMatt Kassian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Johnson – Kassian – Powe6:02
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Johnson2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Palmieri5:03
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Heatley – Setoguchi9:48
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prosser3:52
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Prosser2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Scandella2:03
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler14:29
xG 0.83–0.23 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Abdelkader4:47
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Franzen – Helm9:10
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak7:48
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall16:30
xG 1.07–0.33 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- White – Quincey12:48
xG 0.77–0.19 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 3–0
- Kindl – Smith11:10
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).