Fri, Mar 2, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 012 | 19 | 229 |
| ANA | 115 | 113 | 110 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:58ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:41ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Niklas Hagman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:27CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Jarome Iginla · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 19:14ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:53ANATeemu Selanne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 2:49ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:17CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:17ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:26CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:26ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:09CGYScott Hannan: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:21CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:56ANASaku Koivu: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:16CGYScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 16:05CGYTim Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:36ANAAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min
- P3 9:52ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Cammalleri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri8:52
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Jackman – Bouma – Horak5:01
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Stajan – Comeau7:46
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross8:33
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Brodie3:31
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Brodie5:09
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Sarich – Bouwmeester10:45
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Getzlaf – Perry12:27
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly7:59
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Parros – Beleskey – Bonino4:46
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan11:40
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Brookbank12:06
xG 0.71–0.36 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa12:24
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler13:28
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).