Sat, Mar 3, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 17 | 38 | 526 |
| PHX | 08 | 210 | 014 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:21CBJRick NashSHAssists: Derek MacKenzie, John Moore · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:18CBJRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 8:19PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Shane Doan, David Rundblad · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 13:50PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- P3 9:12CBJNikita NikitinGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 13:44CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:00CBJColton GilliesENAssists: Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:47PHXMike Smith: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 14:31CBJDerek Dorsett: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:17PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:57CBJColton Gillies: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57PHXChris Summers: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:57CBJColton Gillies: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:01PHXMikkel Boedker: Holding2 min
- P2 17:10CBJRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:21CBJNikita Nikitin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Nash – Brassard8:20
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson9:41
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Dorsett – Gillies8:15
xG 0.01–0.17 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Moore5:28
xG 0.24–0.03 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin15:53
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson10:48
xG 0.60–0.86 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:21
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Korpikoski9:36
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Langkow – Torres – Brule6:27
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Gordon – Boedker8:28
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson15:00
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Aucoin – Yandle12:09
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Summers – Rundblad9:06
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).