Sat, Mar 3, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 18 | 011 | 231 |
| LAK | 17 | 25 | 18 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:15LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 15:42ANASheldon BrookbankAssists: Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 2:39LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Dwight King, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 13:53LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Dwight King · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:06ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 19:45LAKAnze KopitarENAssists: Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:21LAKColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:21ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:36LAKJarret Stoll: Charging2 min
- P1 10:58ANALuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27LAKDustin Brown: Holding2 min
- P2 2:21ANANiklas Hagman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P2 9:22ANANick Bonino: Interference2 min
- P2 10:20ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:51LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey2:52
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry5:42
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly5:32
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Blake – Getzlaf – Perry2:54
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa13:44
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Fowler14:08
xG 0.13–0.32 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lydman – Brookbank14:19
xG 0.34–0.98 (26%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – King10:25
xG 0.94–0.10 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis10:08
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan5:47
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar9:13
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez11:32
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Voynov10:54
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Greene2:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).