Sun, Mar 4, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 110 | 19 | 333 |
| NYR | 28 | 03 | 26 | 417 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 6:15NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Brad Richards, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 7:57BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Jordan Caron · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 1:40BOSJordan CaronUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 3:14NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brad Richards, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 11:42BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 12:21NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Stu Bickel · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:30BOSLane MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:46BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:59NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:59BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:38NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:38BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:49NYRMike Rupp: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39NYRMarian Gaborik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:45NYRStu Bickel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bergeron – Marchand15:22
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pouliot – Caron8:14
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – MacDermid4:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin13:35
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:44
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid9:56
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Corvo – Seidenberg4:52
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust4:33
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Prust – Stepan3:50
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Richards – Dubinsky – Hagelin6:50
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin4:50
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Del Zotto5:45
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto7:55
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Bickel2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).