Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 110 | 010 | 125 |
| STL | 09 | 111 | 27 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:18ANACorey PerryAssists: Matt Beleskey, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:38STLDavid BackesPPAssists: David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:47STLPatrik BerglundGWGAssists: Andy McDonald, Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 6:48STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, David Perron · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:51ANACam Fowler: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:56ANALubomir Visnovsky: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:10ANABobby Ryan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:05STLB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:42ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:28STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:01STLIan Cole: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan11:38
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry11:53
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Blake – Pelley – Smith-Pelly4:15
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Beleskey – Smith-Pelly2:16
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa16:26
xG 1.08–0.84 (56%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:12
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Lydman – Brookbank11:42
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves4:51
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka11:03
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Arnott – Porter – Stewart7:41
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- McDonald – Berglund – Perron11:15
xG 0.60–0.81 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:20
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Polak – Cole14:11
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:54
xG 0.28–0.45 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).