Fri, Mar 9, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 07 | 18 | 324 |
| DET | 13 | 15 | 27 | 415 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 14:40DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:41LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 15:37DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 14:06LAKDwight KingAssists: Jeff Carter, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 15:58DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Brendan Smith, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 18:47DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:20LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:44DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:08LAKMike Richards: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:46DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
- P3 2:21LAKColin Fraser: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:19DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:36DETBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – King13:00
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar9:49
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis8:18
xG 0.03–0.01 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fraser – Richardson – Clifford5:11
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov15:21
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Martinez – Voynov2:33
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez7:45
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Emmerton – Nyquist5:21
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Mursak – Andersson5:54
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Franzen – Helm6:29
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Emmerton3:32
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – White2:24
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Janik2:32
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith2:29
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).