Sat, Mar 10, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 213 | 215 | 02 | 430 |
| BOS | 113 | 17 | 113 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 8:15WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Troy Brouwer, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P1 19:54BOSMilan LucicAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 4:58BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 11:22WSHJay BeagleAssists: Alexander Semin, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 17:31WSHBrooks LaichPPGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 16:47BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Brad Marchand, Jordan Caron · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:19WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:20WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:03WSHRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59BOSGreg Zanon: Holding2 min
- P2 12:02BOSDavid Krejci: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:34BOSGreg Zanon: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ward – Aucoin4:48
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault8:09
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Brouwer – Beagle9:01
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson8:27
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Orlov10:41
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Wideman – Schultz14:28
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Carlson2:02
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Caron10:21
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin12:26
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Rolston – Kelly – MacDermid9:14
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk2:57
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 2–0
- Corvo – Zanon4:55
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zanon – McQuaid3:58
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).