Sat, Mar 10, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 0, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 06 | 07 | 021 |
| DAL | 06 | 19 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:37DALBrenden MorrowPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Steve Ott · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 19:14DALMichael RyderENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.60 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:05DALMark Fistric: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:05ANACorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:36ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:01ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:11ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:18DALStephane Robidas: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:43DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:23ANAFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:29DALBrenden Morrow: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:44DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:49ANATeemu Selanne: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Hagman3:32
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hagman – Getzlaf – Perry5:08
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan7:51
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly4:06
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa11:59
xG 0.68–0.07 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler13:53
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa2:34
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson6:53
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom8:44
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Burish – Wandell – Vincour7:46
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ott – Benn10:12
xG 0.08–0.67 (10%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Pardy10:27
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Robidas – Fistric10:42
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Larsen14:24
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).