Sun, Mar 11, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 05 | 37 | 425 |
| MIN | 05 | 07 | 315 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 1:43CGYSven BaertschiAssists: Derek Smith, Tom Kostopoulos · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P3 2:10MINErik ChristensenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 4:30MINErik ChristensenAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Stephane Veilleux · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 10:17CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 14:42CGYOlli JokinenGWGAssists: David Moss, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:56MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:38CGYGuillaume Desbiens: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:38MINMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27CGYSven Baertschi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Moss – Glencross14:18
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Kolanos – Desbiens – Horak6:08
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Nemisz – Baertschi7:50
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan15:11
xG 0.37–0.80 (32%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Smith9:22
xG 1.02–0.17 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 2–2
- Hannan – Giordano18:29
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Babchuk2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Setoguchi – Powe5:13
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Veilleux – Christensen – Kassian6:01
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Peters – Ortmeyer – Palmieri8:00
xG 0.28–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Cullen – Heatley – Setoguchi11:16
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Kampfer16:05
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon18:41
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 1–2
- Stoner – Prosser14:55
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).