Mon, Mar 12, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 5, Phoenix Coyotes 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 213 | 113 | 01 | 1 | 535 |
| PHX | 08 | 210 | 215 | 02 | 0 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31NSHMartin EratAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:49PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Raffi Torres · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 11:04NSHMike FisherAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 14:23PHXKeith YandleAssists: Antoine Vermette, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:26NSHFrancis BouillonAssists: Martin Erat, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 2:36NSHCraig SmithAssists: Paul Gaustad · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 7:11PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Michal Rozsival, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 15:01PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Daymond Langkow, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHX Ray Whitney stopped
- 2. NSH Andrei Kostitsyn scored
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 5. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:14PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:55PHXRay Whitney: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:27PHXMike Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Smith – Bourque7:59
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson11:47
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:58
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist12:24
xG 0.56–0.76 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Hillen13:48
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 2–2
- Bouillon – Ellis9:22
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber21:04
xG 0.58–0.81 (41%)attempts 13–27goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Torres14:32
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Brule – Boedker6:04
xG 0.26–0.26 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Vermette12:46
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski11:23
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson18:16
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 23–6goals 3–0
- Aucoin – Yandle16:09
xG 0.74–1.07 (41%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Klesla – Stone14:55
xG 0.39–0.87 (31%)attempts 15–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).