Tue, Mar 13, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 02 | 015 | 117 | 134 |
| TBL | 410 | 13 | 14 | 617 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56TBLTom PyattAssists: Ryan Malone, Brett Connolly · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 2:26TBLNate ThompsonGWGAssists: Adam Hall, JT Wyman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 4:31TBLRyan ShannonPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Dustin Tokarski · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P1 15:38TBLVictor HedmanUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 3:06TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Brian Lee · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 1:55BOSJordan CaronAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 11:43TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brian Lee · Snap, 0.06 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:54BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:06BOSDaniel Paille: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:08TBLMike Commodore: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:08BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:25TBLMike Commodore: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:13TBLDustin Tokarski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:13TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 14:14BOSTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Whitfield – Kelly5:35
xG 0.48–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Caron5:22
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:27
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Whitfield – Thornton – Campbell2:01
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg15:59
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 27–8goals 0–0
- Corvo – Zanon13:50
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Corvo – Ference2:27
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Wyman7:21
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Malone – Shannon – Wallace3:47
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos10:45
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly9:00
xG 0.10–0.27 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Commodore – Mikkelson4:27
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Mikkelson – Aulie3:38
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Commodore – Aulie5:35
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).