Tue, Mar 13, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 08 | 19 | 04 | 231 |
| CGY | 08 | 29 | 02 | 13 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 5:46CGYSven BaertschiAssists: Jarome Iginla, Roman Horak · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 18:27CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:22SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.29 xG2–2
- OT 4:20CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:31SJSBenn Ferriero: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 5:06SJSRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:32CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P1 16:33SJSRyane Clowe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:18CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:31CGYCurtis Glencross: Boarding5 min
- P1 19:31CGYCurtis Glencross: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:31SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:31CGYGuillaume Desbiens: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:21CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:50CGYCory Sarich: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Couture9:20
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Winnik8:24
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Winchester – Desjardins – Ferriero3:43
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Galiardi8:06
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Burns10:43
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Braun – Demers9:42
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic12:47
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan9:03
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Comeau6:25
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Horak – Baertschi2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Nemisz – Baertschi3:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Babchuk – Smith10:41
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Sarich – Bouwmeester13:20
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano11:39
xG 0.11–0.49 (19%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).