Tue, Mar 13, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 18 | 110 | 224 |
| LAK | 210 | 19 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Drew Doughty, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–1
- P1 13:15LAKAnze KopitarSHAssists: Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:06DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 10:57LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Dwight King, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 8:23LAKSlava VoynovPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 13:30DETJohan FranzenAssists: Brad Stuart, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 19:39LAKJeff CarterENAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:08LAKDustin Penner: Holding2 min
- P2 19:29LAKJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:56LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:53DETDoug Janik: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:51LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:32DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Helm8:36
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler13:44
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Emmerton – Mursak – Nyquist2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Franzen – Nyquist7:29
xG 0.26–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Quincey15:13
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Stuart – Quincey2:32
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Janik – Smith10:40
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar13:19
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan7:41
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis12:14
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – King10:58
xG 0.34–0.90 (27%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty17:10
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Greene3:27
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov14:03
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).