Wed, Mar 14, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 115 | 09 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 237 |
| MTL | 19 | 08 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45MTLErik ColeAssists: Petteri Nokelainen, Aaron Palushaj · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 14:11OTTColin GreeningAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:24MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: P.K. Subban, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:01OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Filip Kuba, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 2. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 5. MTL Andrei Markov stopped
- 6. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:44OTTJared Cowen: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44MTLBlake Geoffrion: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51OTTJared Cowen: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:51MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:37MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40MTLErik Cole: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:56OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:41MTLAndrei Markov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:00OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:22MTLLars Eller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:22OTTErik Karlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Greening10:58
xG 0.75–0.21 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Alfredsson – Klinkhammer – Turris9:57
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien9:30
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith4:09
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gilroy13:13
xG 0.79–0.12 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson16:23
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
- Gonchar – Cowen12:26
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj4:54
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Geoffrion – Eller – Leblanc9:00
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – White11:27
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:21
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampoli – Subban2:06
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Markov – Weber10:57
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Campoli – St-Denis14:15
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).