Wed, Mar 14, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 113 | 18 | 230 |
| WPG | 111 | 412 | 05 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21WPGNik AntropovAssists: Antti Miettinen, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:19WPGEvander KaneAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 8:28WPGEric FehrGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 9:15WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
- P2 16:12WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–5
- P2 16:29DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 16:16DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Michael Ryder, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P2 5:34DALVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:44DALMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:44WPGRon Hainsey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:59DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13WPGTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13DALVernon Fiddler: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:13WPGTanner Glass: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:13DALAdam Burish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:13DALAdam Burish: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Burish – Nystrom13:08
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson13:21
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Morrow – Ott – Benn13:37
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Wandell – Vincour – Garbutt6:24
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski4:21
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Larsen3:29
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Robidas – Daley2:13
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:21
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton8:29
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Slater – Fehr – Glass12:05
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov10:55
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:33
xG 1.20–0.39 (75%)attempts 25–11goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Clitsome18:03
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 12–18goals 2–1
- Stuart – Jones13:07
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).