Wed, Mar 14, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 0, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 06 | 08 | 023 |
| ANA | 06 | 312 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:52ANATeemu SelanneGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.41 xG0–1
- P2 15:49ANAKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 18:55ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P3 1:22ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sheldon Brookbank · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:48ANARod Pelley: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12ANAMatt Beleskey: Clipping2 min
- P2 12:29DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:41DETDoug Janik: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:13ANAToni Lydman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pelley won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Helm11:13
xG 0.65–0.48 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak7:13
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Franzen12:07
xG 0.18–0.53 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler13:33
xG 0.45–0.89 (33%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Smith13:24
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Stuart – Quincey2:12
xG 0.04–0.09 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall16:09
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ryan – Palmieri12:00
xG 1.15–0.21 (84%)attempts 20–3goals 3–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano11:04
xG 0.67–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hagman – Pelley – Smith-Pelly11:04
xG 0.24–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Blake – Beleskey – Bonino10:05
xG 0.41–0.74 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler12:49
xG 1.08–0.46 (70%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Lydman – Brookbank17:00
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Visnovsky2:14
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).