Thu, Mar 15, 2012·PNC Arena, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 0, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 013 | 012 | 015 | 040 |
| CAR | 012 | 07 | 211 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:08CARChad LaRoseGWGAssists: Andreas Nodl, Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 17:22CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Bryan Allen · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:41CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:31STLChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:07CARChad LaRose: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:41STLScott Nichol: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:41CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:41CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:58STLAlex Pietrangelo: Interference2 min
- P3 3:47STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Interference2 min
- P3 6:35STLScott Nichol: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 19:03STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Berglund – Perron7:32
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie6:06
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves4:46
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Porter – Sobotka – Stewart8:45
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak11:04
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo12:28
xG 0.98–0.63 (61%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk10:31
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Brent – Nodl3:33
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner9:25
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Nodl5:23
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman10:05
xG 0.55–0.98 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Allen – Gleason4:27
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk13:56
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Allen – Sanguinetti6:28
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).