Fri, Mar 16, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 06 | 213 | 431 |
| DAL | 05 | 011 | 16 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10CHIDave BollandAssists: Andrew Shaw, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 1:42CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 0:33CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 1:45CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 14:10DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:35DALLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:11DALMichael Ryder: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:42CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
- P3 16:11DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Stalberg – Kruger12:42
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Shaw10:16
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Mayers – Hayes – Bollig4:37
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brunette – Hossa – Kane12:05
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook19:00
xG 1.03–0.91 (53%)attempts 26–22goals 3–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson4:53
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Leddy13:09
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Wandell – Vincour5:25
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Burish – Nystrom8:46
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn2:36
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder3:20
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Fistric14:26
xG 1.09–0.25 (82%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Larsen16:34
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Daley – Pardy14:22
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).