Fri, Mar 16, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 314 | 019 | 110 | 443 |
| ANA | 08 | 16 | 16 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Matt Greene, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 9:33LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams, Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 19:52LAKJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 3:41ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 3:53ANALuca SbisaAssists: Cam Fowler, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:49LAKMike RichardsENAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:23ANASheldon Brookbank: Interference2 min
- P1 13:23ANADevante Smith-Pelly: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:17LAKMatt Greene: Holding2 min
- P2 3:17LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:29LAKColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:29ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:30ANAToni Lydman: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:05LAKTrevor Lewis: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar12:30
xG 1.13–0.17 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Carter – Richards – King11:08
xG 0.94–0.43 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan5:28
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis11:34
xG 0.13–0.77 (15%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez8:33
xG 0.84–0.30 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Scuderi – Doughty18:10
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Greene4:22
xG 0.02–0.25 (8%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan8:02
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Blake – Beleskey – Bonino4:08
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan6:13
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Hagman – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly5:24
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler13:48
xG 0.90–0.72 (55%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa12:45
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Lydman – Brookbank14:04
xG 0.36–0.81 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).