Sat, Mar 17, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 111 | 315 | 534 |
| MIN | 14 | 210 | 012 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02CARDrayson BowmanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:08MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Steven Kampfer, Tom Gilbert · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 12:33MINNick JohnsonAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:24MINErik ChristensenPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Cal Clutterbuck · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 17:14CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Brandon Sutter, Anthony Stewart · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 7:16CARBrandon SutterAssists: Drayson Bowman · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 8:04CARTim BrentGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 18:45CARChad LaRoseENAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.73 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:24MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:24CARBrandon Sutter: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:24CARPatrick Dwyer: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:24MINDany Heatley: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:03CARJamie McBain: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:38CARTim Brent: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03MINTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Tlusty7:40
xG 1.16–0.04 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Tlusty5:26
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Sutter – Bowman2:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter5:16
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain5:46
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain9:04
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk17:23
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Clutterbuck – Powe12:53
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer6:48
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Christensen – Setoguchi – Palmieri7:44
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Heatley – Brodziak – Johnson16:08
xG 0.38–1.29 (23%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Prosser10:45
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Kampfer2:53
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon20:42
xG 0.65–0.72 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).