Sat, Mar 17, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 112 | 04 | 00 | 1 | 226 |
| FLA | 24 | 012 | 01 | 00 | 2 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 17:15FLAMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 17:53FLAJohn MaddenAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 9:41BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.35 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA John Madden stopped
- 2. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
- 3. FLA Wojtek Wolski scored
- 4. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 5. FLA Mikael Samuelsson stopped
- 6. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 7. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 8. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 9. FLA Marcel Goc stopped
- 10. BUF Brad Boyes stopped
- 11. FLA Sean Bergenheim stopped
- 12. BUF Derek Roy stopped
- 13. FLA Dmitry Kulikov scored
- 14. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:04BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:04FLAKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:59FLATomas Fleischmann: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:30BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:43BUFAlexander Sulzer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16FLAShawn Matthias: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:16BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:16FLAShawn Matthias: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:20FLAJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno13:40
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Leino – Hodgson12:13
xG 0.59–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Roy – Pominville – Tropp13:19
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Kaleta7:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Weber11:35
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer15:19
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera16:32
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Madden – Smithson7:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Versteeg – Matthias2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Wolski7:13
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim12:00
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weaver – Kulikov14:38
xG 0.21–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison19:03
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson13:09
xG 0.17–0.52 (24%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).