Sun, Mar 18, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Calgary Flames 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 03 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 218 |
| CGY | 07 | 016 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03CBJNikita NikitinAssists: Brett Lebda, Darryl Boyce · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 8:34CGYMatt StajanAssists: Curtis Glencross, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 3. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
- 4. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
- 5. CBJ Jack Johnson stopped
- 6. CGY Curtis Glencross stopped
- 7. CBJ Cam Atkinson scored
- 8. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:32CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:10CGYGuillaume Desbiens: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:35CBJJohn Moore: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:31CBJJared Boll: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:42CBJJack Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:18CBJVinny Prospal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:45CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:13CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:13CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Umberger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Atkinson10:01
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard10:09
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Dorsett – Johansen9:10
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nikitin – Johnson5:02
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nikitin2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson14:06
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Comeau3:36
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross2:47
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Glencross – Comeau2:27
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Kostopoulos – Glencross7:05
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano13:51
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Smith10:32
xG 0.35–0.03 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Sarich – Bouwmeester14:04
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).