Sun, Mar 18, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 08 | 311 | 327 |
| ANA | 19 | 013 | 09 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:32ANADevante Smith-PellySHAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sheldon Brookbank · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 1:19NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: David Legwand, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 10:27NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 19:43NSHDavid LegwandENAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:10ANABobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:33NSHMartin Erat: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:04ANABobby Ryan: Interference2 min
- P3 15:48ANALubomir Visnovsky: Holding2 min
- P3 19:14ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Pelley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist6:26
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque4:12
xG 0.35–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque2:15
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn14:19
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber17:30
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein15:07
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Gill – Klein2:46
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBlake – Getzlaf – Perry11:37
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Bonino – Palmieri10:32
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hagman – Pelley – Smith-Pelly9:31
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano12:00
xG 0.34–0.87 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler14:43
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Guenin15:11
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa16:43
xG 0.41–0.86 (32%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).