Mon, Mar 19, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Boston Bruins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 02 | 05 | 06 | 013 |
| BOS | 49 | 38 | 17 | 824 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25BOSChris KellyGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 5:40BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Andrew Ference, Daniel Paille · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 10:58BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Brian Rolston · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 12:42BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 2:31BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Brian Rolston, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
- P2 5:45BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Brian Rolston · Slap, 0.02 xG0–6
- P2 19:25BOSBrian RolstonAssists: David Krejci, Adam McQuaid · Slap, 0.04 xG0–7
- P3 18:29BOSTyler SeguinAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.12 xG0–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:19TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:19BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:19TORJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:10BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:01TORClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:41BOSJordan Caron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bozak – Ashton4:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Frattin7:04
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Armstrong – Rosehill10:14
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Connolly – Steckel – Crabb10:44
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Gunnarsson2:16
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Liles – Komisarek14:46
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Kelly – Pouliot9:59
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:19
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille11:16
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Caron10:33
xG 0.09–0.13 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Boychuk17:57
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 16–15goals 4–0
- Chara – Seidenberg15:46
xG 0.51–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Zanon – McQuaid16:30
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).