Mon, Mar 19, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 210 | 06 | 222 |
| NYR | 113 | 27 | 17 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:33NYRDan GirardiAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 5:03NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Petr Sykora · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 7:33NYRMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–3
- P2 11:08NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:50NYRDerek StepanAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:03NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03NJDBryce Salvador: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:01NYRBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:45NYRMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:45NJDBryce Salvador: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:00NJDEric Boulton: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:09NJDEric Boulton: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:27NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:38NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:47NJDJacob Josefson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bickel won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Zubrus9:18
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Boulton – Janssen – Carter3:22
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:41
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson10:45
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky9:50
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Salvador – Larsson2:01
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene11:59
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mitchell – Zuccarello9:10
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Stepan12:51
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Prust5:28
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin10:45
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBickel – Erixon8:54
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto11:07
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:20
xG 0.50–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).