Tue, Mar 20, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 212 | 210 | 08 | 430 |
| PIT | 213 | 415 | 27 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04PITTyler KennedyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 3:35WPGJim SlaterAssists: Tanner Glass, Spencer Machacek · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:51WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 16:44PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 1:15PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 3:54WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 6:55PITTyler KennedyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P2 11:31PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P2 14:39WPGTim StapletonAssists: Ben Maxwell, Spencer Machacek · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–5
- P2 17:03PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 2:07PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, James Neal · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–7
- P3 13:27PITPascal DupuisAssists: Jordan Staal, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.04 xG4–8
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:36WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:32PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 15:04WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:55WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little15:21
xG 0.67–0.54 (55%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Slater – Glass – Machacek4:00
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Stapleton – Maxwell – Machacek3:31
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Stapleton – Maxwell2:33
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien20:27
xG 1.08–0.68 (61%)attempts 31–19goals 1–2
- Hainsey – Bogosian15:46
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 6–18goals 1–2
- Stuart – Clitsome12:03
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Crosby9:27
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal12:16
xG 0.83–0.59 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 3–1
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Staal13:00
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Tangradi5:57
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang17:18
xG 1.11–0.80 (58%)attempts 23–14goals 2–2
- Orpik – Michalek16:37
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Engelland – Niskanen15:23
xG 0.42–0.48 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).