Tue, Mar 20, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 310 | 05 | 212 | 527 |
| CBJ | 011 | 03 | 111 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Bryan Bickell, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 6:17CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 8:22CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Duncan Keith, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 0:37CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 4:09CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–0
- P3 12:31CBJRick NashAssists: Jack Johnson, Aaron Johnson · Deflected, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:34CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:34CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:39CHIAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:33CHIAndrew Shaw: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:53CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:23CBJDarryl Boyce: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Bickell – Shaw9:26
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Mayers – Frolik – Bollig6:25
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kruger12:10
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Brunette – Hossa – Kane11:37
xG 0.41–0.96 (30%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson2:26
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Oduya – Olsen2:29
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson5:09
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Atkinson8:44
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu4:47
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard7:02
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Umberger – Brassard – Atkinson4:01
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Nikitin12:31
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Lebda – Savard3:13
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard11:48
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).