Wed, Mar 21, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 215 | 08 | 115 | 338 |
| ANA | 15 | 110 | 27 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 10:28ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:22STLDavid BackesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 6:03ANANick BoninoAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:47STLDavid PerronAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 7:50ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 14:06ANAJason BlakeGWGAssists: Sheldon Brookbank, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:27STLChris Porter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:53STLJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:58ANATeemu Selanne: Holding2 min
- P2 15:10STLJamie Langenbrunner: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:25STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:47ANAKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:24STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:24ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron14:12
xG 1.20–0.65 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Berglund – Schwartz6:55
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Arnott – Sobotka – Stewart8:34
xG 0.42–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Porter6:32
xG 0.08–0.12 (38%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:14
xG 1.32–0.60 (69%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:06
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk2:47
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly11:00
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake12:03
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Hagman – Cogliano – Beleskey9:03
xG 0.42–0.66 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Ryan – Bonino – Palmieri8:44
xG 0.07–0.44 (14%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Sbisa4:01
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Guenin8:45
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Brookbank3:05
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).