Thu, Mar 22, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 117 | 19 | 03 | 00 | 0 | 229 |
| MIN | 04 | 112 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:54CGYLee StempniakPPAssists: Chris Butler, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:38CGYAnton BabchukPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 8:36MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 12:23MINDarroll PoweAssists: Nick Johnson, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Erik Christensen stopped
- 2. CGY Matt Stajan stopped
- 3. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 4. CGY Lee Stempniak stopped
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 6. CGY Blair Jones stopped
- 7. MIN Devin Setoguchi scored
- 8. CGY Blake Comeau stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:28MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:57CGYAlex Tanguay: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:57MINClayton Stoner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:59MINSteven Kampfer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:25MINTom Gilbert: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 0:55MINNate Prosser: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:15CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:38CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 14:13CGYBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:32CGYChris Butler: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:25CGYDavid Moss: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Moss – Glencross6:38
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Bouma5:32
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Moss – Comeau – Jones2:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan10:00
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler12:09
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:53
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Smith3:39
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Johnson – Powe8:14
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer7:43
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi12:25
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Cullen – Christensen – Clutterbuck7:40
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Prosser6:06
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Prosser2:52
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Prosser4:14
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).