Fri, Mar 23, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 016 | 011 | 138 |
| MTL | 413 | 010 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29MTLErik ColeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:56MTLErik ColeGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.39 xG0–2
- P1 5:41MTLErik ColePPAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–3
- P1 8:21MTLPetteri NokelainenAssists: Aaron Palushaj, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P1 19:47OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 5:05MTLLars EllerPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (30)
- P1 2:06MTLBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:06OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:30OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P1 5:35OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:04OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:10MTLYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00MTLP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00OTTNick Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:35OTTZenon Konopka: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:35OTTZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:35MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:45OTTKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:45MTLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:45MTLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00OTTZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:49OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:23MTLMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:23OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:23OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:09OTTJared Cowen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:09OTTJared Cowen: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:09MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:09MTLLars Eller: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:09OTTZack Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:09MTLRene Bourque: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Condra – Klinkhammer – O'Brien3:41
xG 0.16–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening12:46
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Alfredsson – Turris – Smith8:29
xG 0.36–1.05 (25%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gilroy11:10
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips2:05
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:38
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:55
xG 1.10–0.13 (89%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Eller7:03
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj3:32
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Blunden – White2:25
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban9:42
xG 0.78–0.10 (89%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Campoli – Emelin4:31
xG 0.56–0.15 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Gorges2:24
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).