Fri, Mar 23, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 2, Florida Panthers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 19 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 221 |
| FLA | 09 | 16 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:37EDMRyan JonesAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:58FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. FLA Mikael Samuelsson stopped
- 2. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 3. FLA Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 4. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. FLA Dmitry Kulikov stopped
- 6. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 7. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 8. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:24EDMAles Hemsky: Holding2 min
- P1 13:21FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:00EDMLinus Omark: Holding2 min
- P3 4:28EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:02EDMLinus Omark: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Belanger – Eager2:30
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Omark5:44
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Belanger – Hordichuk – Eager3:11
xG 0.06–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Omark3:22
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Whitney12:43
xG 0.42–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Potter – Peckham11:02
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry17:23
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim13:23
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Wolski – Matthias6:49
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Madden – Barch – Upshall4:01
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wolski – Versteeg – Matthias2:30
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov2:00
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison17:10
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:13
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).