Sat, Mar 24, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 014 | 015 | 136 |
| DAL | 28 | 06 | 26 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37DALJamie BennAssists: Adam Burish, Adam Pardy · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:17DALMichael RyderGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 12:27CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Anton Babchuk, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 16:27DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:32DALBrenden MorrowENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:39DALTom Wandell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:25CGYBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:44CGYOlli Jokinen: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:03DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:49DALSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49DALSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00DALAdam Burish: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:12DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:04CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Jones
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri13:06
xG 1.05–0.21 (83%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross10:05
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau6:42
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Comeau – Jones2:26
xG 0.07–0.07 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano16:30
xG 0.93–0.38 (71%)attempts 19–17goals 0–2
- Bouwmeester – Butler15:41
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Wilson8:34
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Burish – Nystrom4:06
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Wandell – Vincour3:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Benn – Vincour3:25
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson12:12
xG 0.28–0.33 (45%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Pardy12:50
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Daley – Larsen2:00
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas13:26
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).