Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 311 | 03 | 424 |
| DET | 016 | 315 | 219 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17CARJiri TlustyAssists: Chad LaRose, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 0:26CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 5:10DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 15:38CARJamie McBainPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 15:55CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 16:58DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 17:16DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 8:10DETJiri HudlerAssists: Brad Stuart, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 11:35DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Daniel Cleary · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:24CARBryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P1 8:32DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:32CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:19CARJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:39DETNicklas Lidstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Brent – Skinner4:05
xG 0.03–0.08 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman10:20
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 8–22goals 0–2
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:37
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- LaRose – Staal – Tlusty12:43
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 18–12goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Pitkanen – McBain14:03
xG 0.48–0.81 (37%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Allen – Gleason13:21
xG 0.24–1.08 (18%)attempts 7–19goals 2–0
- Harrison – Faulk15:39
xG 0.27–1.53 (15%)attempts 15–22goals 0–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler15:01
xG 1.64–0.21 (89%)attempts 24–14goals 3–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Nyquist11:44
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader9:31
xG 0.79–0.70 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak4:41
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:33
xG 1.63–0.49 (77%)attempts 27–16goals 2–2
- Stuart – Kronwall17:12
xG 1.25–0.26 (83%)attempts 17–13goals 3–0
- Quincey – Kindl15:30
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).