Sat, Mar 24, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 214 | 09 | 11 | 332 |
| COL | 117 | 111 | 012 | 00 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 11:01COLJamie McGinnPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Semyon Varlamov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 15:55VANMason RaymondPPAssists: Sami Salo, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 17:30VANChris HigginsAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 1:40VANChris HigginsGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen, Kevin Bieksa · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:36VANDale Weise: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 6:34VANAaron Rome: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:34COLChuck Kobasew: Charging2 min
- P1 7:24VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:01COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:46COLDavid Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:42VANSamuel Pahlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:35COLDavid Jones: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:23VANSami Salo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:17VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:08COLDavid Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23VANSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Kesler – Booth7:34
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise3:57
xG 0.03–0.03 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Booth – Raymond2:48
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Higgins – Hansen9:58
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev5:18
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Tanev2:49
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler2:27
xG 0.02–0.02 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Olver – Duchene10:10
xG 0.86–0.09 (91%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:17
xG 0.76–0.30 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod4:08
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn11:47
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Barrie10:10
xG 0.71–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:42
xG 0.72–0.53 (57%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Wilson10:50
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).