Mon, Mar 26, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Detroit Red Wings 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 09 | 213 | 226 |
| DET | 415 | 216 | 18 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 5:35DETGustav NyquistAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 8:55DETTomas HolmstromPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P1 9:51DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 6:17DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Ian White · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 8:34DETBrad StuartAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.07 xG0–6
- P3 1:25DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–7
- P3 1:44CBJMark LetestuAssists: Rick Nash, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–7
- P3 10:32CBJRick NashAssists: Vinny Prospal, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:47CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:50CBJDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:15DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:59DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:04CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:17CBJVinny Prospal: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:50CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18CBJDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:23DETIan White: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:59DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:56CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBoyce – Russell – Dorsett5:51
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Umberger – Brassard – Atkinson6:54
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu8:20
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Boll – Gillies – Johansen6:58
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lebda – Moore4:03
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lebda – Johnson2:39
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Lebda – Nikitin6:33
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak7:04
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler9:22
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Nyquist7:46
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader8:47
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Kindl9:44
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- White – Quincey2:18
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White9:13
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).