Mon, Mar 26, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 6, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 211 | 314 | 635 |
| WPG | 013 | 317 | 118 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:34OTTChris NeilAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–0
- P2 1:53OTTKaspars DaugavinsAssists: Erik Condra, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:02WPGAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Kyle Wellwood · Slap, 0.47 xG2–1
- P2 6:54WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Evander Kane, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 17:26OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 17:46WPGAntti MiettinenAssists: Jim Slater, Tanner Glass · Snap, 0.31 xG3–3
- P3 2:54OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 17:03WPGEvander KaneAssists: Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 17:27OTTDaniel AlfredssonGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 19:26OTTMilan MichalekENAssists: Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.50 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:48WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:57OTTSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:38OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 14:56OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:34OTTKaspars Daugavins: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Turris12:53
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith8:45
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Neil – Klinkhammer – O'Brien3:31
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening14:19
xG 0.55–1.21 (31%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson7:35
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Kuba2:27
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner3:06
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Burmistrov11:19
xG 1.31–0.11 (92%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little16:42
xG 2.15–1.24 (63%)attempts 24–21goals 0–2
- Stapleton – Maxwell – Machacek4:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (2%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass7:34
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian18:21
xG 2.11–0.88 (70%)attempts 31–19goals 2–3
- Enstrom – Byfuglien22:45
xG 1.79–1.17 (60%)attempts 27–21goals 1–1
- Stuart – Jones5:58
xG 0.02–0.60 (3%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).