Tue, Mar 27, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 03 | 110 | 218 |
| BOS | 111 | 112 | 315 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:54BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.54 xG1–1
- P2 15:05BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:46TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 11:34BOSBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Brian Rolston, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 15:50BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:53BOSRich PeverleyENAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:11TBLJT Wyman: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:52TBLKeith Aulie: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:16TBLKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:16BOSGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:21TBLMike Commodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:57BOSTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:59TBLTim Wallace: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:23BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:07BOSTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:01TBLBrian Lee: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos3:22
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly2:33
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos3:55
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Purcell – Stamkos2:21
xG 0.07–0.52 (12%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – Lee2:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Commodore – Aulie2:36
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman2:38
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Caron8:17
xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Peverley – Marchand8:15
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin8:02
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Rolston – Kelly – Pouliot7:43
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg10:45
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Zanon – McQuaid10:16
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk2:45
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).