Tue, Mar 27, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 013 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 336 |
| MTL | 112 | 14 | 08 | 05 | 0 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04FLAWojtek WolskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:00MTLErik ColePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 18:57MTLLouis LeblancAssists: Frédéric St-Denis · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 12:48FLAMikael SamuelssonAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 2. FLA Wojtek Wolski scored
- 3. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 4. FLA Mikael Samuelsson stopped
- 5. MTL Louis Leblanc stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:31FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26MTLLouis Leblanc: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:33MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:04FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:04MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:34FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:02MTLLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Versteeg – Matthias14:15
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim7:44
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Sturm – Smithson – Upshall4:29
xG 0.42–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Upshall3:04
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov13:49
xG 0.81–0.16 (84%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:55
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison17:11
xG 0.22–1.65 (12%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty15:52
xG 1.43–0.42 (77%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Blunden – White – Eller8:34
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj5:06
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Leblanc14:07
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban18:29
xG 1.45–0.59 (71%)attempts 16–24goals 0–0
- Campoli – St-Denis13:15
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin14:45
xG 0.17–0.80 (18%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).