Thu, Mar 29, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 25 | 16 | 420 |
| NJD | 08 | 418 | 212 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 3:07NJDDainius ZubrusSHAssists: Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:40TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Eric Brewer · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 6:54NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Ryan Carter, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 10:13TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 13:26NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Adam Henrique, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 14:37NJDMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 2:25NJDAlexei PonikarovskyGWGAssists: Bryce Salvador · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 6:05NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–6
- P3 19:51TBLTrevor SmithAssists: Tim Wallace, Keith Aulie · Snap, 0.10 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:53TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 2:15NJDAndy Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:31TBLBrian Lee: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33NJDDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:21TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
- P3 12:34NJDMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Smith – Stamkos3:19
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Pyatt – Purcell2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Wyman – Purcell5:26
xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Wyman – Smith – Connolly3:48
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Lee3:39
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Aulie2:42
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Gervais – Mikkelson4:37
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Henrique10:15
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:53
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Bernier – Carter – Josefson8:04
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Zajac12:27
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky16:08
xG 1.04–0.36 (74%)attempts 20–6goals 3–2
- Volchenkov – Fayne8:57
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold5:39
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).