Fri, Mar 30, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 212 | 111 | 534 |
| BUF | 210 | 19 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–0
- P1 6:35BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Jason Pominville, Ville Leino · Tip-in, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 12:52PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Steve Sullivan, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 15:45BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 11:43PITJames NealPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 15:06PITSteve SullivanGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 16:59BUFThomas VanekUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:54PITJordan StaalENAssists: Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:10BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14PITMatt Cooke: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:58BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:09BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Dupuis – Crosby9:21
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal11:03
xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Staal2:49
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Vitale2:45
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Niskanen17:49
xG 1.14–0.67 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Orpik – Michalek20:59
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Engelland – Strait10:19
xG 0.46–1.10 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pominville – Leino11:15
xG 1.06–0.34 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno14:32
xG 0.72–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Kaleta6:44
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Tropp – Hodgson13:40
xG 0.28–0.66 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera3:39
xG 0.73–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Sulzer – Weber7:54
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sulzer2:56
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).