Fri, Mar 30, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 17 | 17 | 425 |
| CGY | 012 | 014 | 113 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21COLMark OlverUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:56COLDavid JonesGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 8:29COLMilan HejdukAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 19:22CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Curtis Glencross · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:27COLPeter MuellerENAssists: Shane O'Brien, Jay McClement · Backhand, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:11COLCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:39COLMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:27COLSemyon Varlamov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:18COLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – McLeod – Mueller9:46
xG 0.85–0.47 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Downie11:48
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Kobasew – Duchene8:50
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Olver – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:26
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson17:19
xG 0.76–0.66 (53%)attempts 21–21goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Barrie15:13
xG 0.98–0.90 (52%)attempts 16–24goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda16:51
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Jones7:53
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross3:19
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau2:56
xG 0.02–0.03 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Moss – Comeau6:00
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Hannan2:06
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Sarich – Giordano14:12
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:55
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).